I told him I hadn't checked all the details, but from what I heard from Dion's speech, it sounded pretty good.
He disagreed. He is convinced that Liberals' 'Green Shift' plan is going to cost us a fortune, especially when the gas bill comes, and he didn't believe me when I told him that almost all of these tax credits were going to be refundable. Which is important for us, given that we are both mostly self-employed and so our taxable income is as close to nothing as we can make it.
So today I checked the details.
First, I did that little "Calculate Your Benefit" thing, and based on our income last year we'd be saving about $1900/year, or $160/month. Looking more closely at the specific tax credits and benefits, it looks pretty accurate, and would certainly be more if we have a good year.
Then I tried to figure out what this all would cost us - and just a suggestion, but the Libs might want to consider putting a "Carbon Cost Calculator" on there as well.
First the gas bill. We live in an old, rickety, poorly-insulated little house, so we go through somewhat more than the 3,000-3,500 ft.cu./year mentioned in the handbook, but even accounting for that we'd only be spending an extra $6.60/month in year 1, and $26.50/month in year 4. But hey, if we actually got off our asses and put plastic film on all the windows in the winter like we keep talking about but never do, we'd save a bundle.
Oh, look - that's exactly the kind of thing this plan is designed to encourage people to do. Fancy that!
On top of that, the handbook acknowledges that most people will incur added costs related to increased transportation, electricity, food and other price increases passed on by business and industry. They estimate these added costs to amount to about $60/year/household in year 1, up to $240/yr in year 4.
Even assuming they are grossly low-balling it, I can't see how it would exceed the money we would save and/or get back in tax credits.
So, yeah. Looks good, for us anyway. I even played with the calculator to figure out the tax savings for my parents, my sister-in-law, etc, and it all looks pretty straightforward: the tax savings exceed the predicted costs.
Still, I don't want to be schmuck. So I wandered over to the Conservative Party website to check out their numbers. Surely they've had their math wizards all over this thing for the past day and a half, happily dissecting the Liberals' hopelessly flawed calculations and exposing the real costs to Canadians.Meh. Not so much.
Aside from some broad claims about everybody and everything getting taxed with this plan, there was no reference to the offset tax credits other than to dismiss them as "a trick".
No evidence. No specifics about what they think the real costs will be, or why they dispute the claims that the carbon tax will be 'revenue neutral'. No numbers. No debate. Just mockery.
Oh, and they're calling Dion an "elitist". How very Republican of them.
Whooee! Well JennyGal, I'll say one thing fer Dion: he's got people talkin' about a serious issue.
ReplyDeleteHave a look at the fully costed Green Party plan. The GPC just released a lot of details on our long held tax-shift and carbon tax policies. It's a PDF.
Even though the GPC shift is a $40 billion shift compared to Dion's $15 billion shift, the GPC plan has minimal effect of the bottom lines of most typical Canadians. The GPC plan actually leaves more money in the pockets of average consumers. The higher per tonne rate also allows energy conscious consumers to cut there carbon taxes by an even greater amount, thus offering an even greater incentive to cut CO2.
The more we learn and understand the tax-shift concept, the less scary it becomes.
Under current ax policy, the best way for individuals to lower their taxes is to have less money in their pockets -- earn less income or set aside more in RSP's and other tax abatement vehicles.
With a carbon tax, we can lower our taxes at the same time we lower our fossil fuel bills. We still enjoy the lowered income tax rate. Win-win stuff.
Some people are making an argument that Canadians cannot lower our CO2 output. Nonsense. The average Canadian carbon footprint is nearly twice that of the average European's footprint. As the price of gas has risen dramatically, Canadians are finding many ways to lower their fossil fuel use. Most of us can do a lot more and it isn't too much of a hardship to wear longjohns in the winter while keeping the thermostat a couple degrees lower or to staple that poly on the windows. Most of us can cut down our car trips simply by multitasking and saving up errands that require a vehicle until there are several that can be done in the same trip.
Ma an' I live in a tiny town in a drafty old frame house. Even so, I've done a few carbon footprint calculations and we come out at about 60% of the Cdn average. If we can do it here in the sticks in a 1880 wooden house, most Canadians can lower their footprint, too. The beauty of doing so under a carbon taxed economy is that we can and will save tax money along with energy money.
JB
He disagreed. He is convinced that Liberals' 'Green Shift' plan is going to cost us a fortune, especially when the gas bill comes, and he didn't believe me when I told him that almost all of these tax credits were going to be refundable.
ReplyDeleteYour husband sounds like my kind of man. Tell him he's right for me :)
Oh, look - that's exactly the kind of thing this plan is designed to encourage people to do. Fancy that!
Sure, but that's the problem. It expects people to be able to insulate their homes, buy energy efficient appliances and furnaces overnight, and buy a new car. Hey, if it were that easy we wouldn't need Big Brother telling us to do so.
They estimate these added costs to amount to about $60/year/household in year 1, up to $240/yr in year 4.
Laugh. Out. Freaking. Loud.
$60 in inflation? That's it? Come on Jennifer, you know you are too intelligent to buy that. Can you see a massive carbon tax contributing a mere $5 extra per month to your spending? $5 a day more like.
Aside from some broad claims about everybody and everything getting taxed with this plan, there was no reference to the offset tax credits other than to dismiss them as "a trick".
True enough. They should get to work debunking it with hired economists.
Oh and Dion is being elitist when he tells me how to run each and every aspect of my life. That is the very definition. Have you read the 50 tips on how to be a better human being yet?
Your husband sounds like my kind of man. Tell him he's right for me :)
ReplyDeleteYeah, well, I showed him the numbers and the specific refundable credits we'd be getting and he believes me now. He's a smart fella.
$60 in inflation? That's it? Come on Jennifer, you know you are too intelligent to buy that.
Tell you what, Raph. Let's try the math another way. Why don't you go out and do one of those "carbon footprint calculator" things and figure out how many tonnes of CO2 get emitted to provide you with home heating, electricity, food, etc.
Now, subtract the carbon output of your car because the tax won't be applied to gasoline. For my family that works out to about 2 1/2 tonnes of CO2 per person per year. Then subtract the amount for home heating costs because that is calculated elsewhere.
What's left would include the carbon emitted to produce and transport your food, clothes, and other products, plus that emitted to produce the electricity you use, plus stuff like air travel, barbeques, etc.
In my case, it's about 5 1/2 tonnes per year. Lessee...
5.5 x $10 = $55 x 3 people = $165
5.5 x $40 = $220 x 3 people = $660
So yes, even working it out that way (which assumes that all carbon tax costs would be passed directly to the consumer and none would be from gasoline which won't be taxed), it's STILL much less than the tax credits, even by the fourth year.
Granted, the carbon footprint of the average Canadian is about 20 tonnes all told, but assuming half that is gasoline, even THAT piggish amount still only adds up to $100/yr in the first year, $400 by year 4.
So instead of calling people stupid and crazy and screaming that the world will come to an end if this is made into law, why don't you pull out a calculator and prove me wrong?